Goldman Sachs released a report on the 13th stating that due to the recent announcement of a stimulus plan by the Chinese government to support economic growth, Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP forecast for China. The firm increased its forecast for China's real GDP in 2024 from 4.7% to 4.9%.
Goldman Sachs' predictions for China's economic growth have always been relatively objective and timely. This adjustment is based on a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by China. The upward revision of China's economic growth expectations is also a recognition of the economic stimulus policies and a positive outlook on China's economic growth prospects.
Indeed, the economic stimulus policies introduced this time, whether in terms of monetary policy or fiscal policy, and whether in terms of the intensity or methods of stimulation, are all conducive to the positive development of the economy and are beneficial for the economy to enter a stable and orderly growth trajectory. Firstly, the economic stimulus policies have already had a positive impact on the stock market. The continuous surge before the holiday is the best evidence. Although the stock market has fluctuated after the holiday, the trend remains upward. The difference is that the amplitude of fluctuations will gradually moderate, forming a mild upward bull market pattern. Once the stock market enters a slow and long bull market track, the role of the stock market on the economy will continue to emerge.
Secondly, the positive effects of economic stimulus policies on the real estate market are beginning to emerge. During the National Day holiday, there have been some positive changes in the real estate markets across the country. The number of house viewings and transactions are significantly better than in previous years, and housing prices have also started to narrow the decline, forming a gradually stable pattern. Once the real estate market stabilizes, the entire economy will enter a stable and orderly development track.
Thirdly, economic stimulus policies have a good effect on residents' consumption expectations. Although the consumer market has not yet fully emerged from a slump, the introduction of economic stimulus policies has had a certain positive effect on residents' psychological expectations and consumption expectations, especially employment, which has a strong expectation. If the economy can achieve good growth under the influence of stimulus policies, it will definitely have a positive effect on promoting residents' consumption.
In summary, Goldman Sachs' upward revision of China's economic growth expectations is not solely based on economic stimulus policies. It is also the result of long-term observation and attention. It integrates economic stimulus policies into China's long-term development plans and trends. It is a rational and objective analysis and prediction, and it is also a positive outlook and bullish view on China's economic prospects.