Good news is pouring in from the new energy track.
Firstly, the wind power track has achieved a significant milestone. On October 12th, the world's largest 26-megawatt class offshore wind turbine, with a capacity of 26 megawatts, was rolled off the production line at the offshore wind power industrial park in Fuqing City, Fujian Province. This turbine is currently the largest single-unit capacity and longest rotor diameter offshore fully nationalized wind turbine in the world, with full independent intellectual property rights, and a supply chain that is fully independently controllable. It represents the latest achievement in the rapid technological progress of China's wind power equipment industry chain.
Secondly, the latest sales data for new energy vehicles also exceeded expectations. According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, in September of this year, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for three consecutive months, reaching 53.3% in September.
At the same time, China's automobile exports have continued the strong growth trend of last year. Both the overall passenger cars and new energy vehicles saw their export volumes reach historical highs in September.
Significant Achievements
On October 12th, the world's largest 26-megawatt class offshore wind turbine with full independent intellectual property rights, developed by China Eastern Electric Group Co., Ltd., was rolled off the production line in Fujian.
This turbine is currently the largest single-unit capacity and longest rotor diameter offshore fully nationalized wind turbine in the world. The supply chain is fully independently controllable. The entire turbine is composed of more than 30,000 parts, and the key components such as the generator, blades, bearings, and electric control system have all reached a world-leading level. It is the latest achievement in the rapid technological progress of China's wind power equipment industry chain, providing strong technical support for China to build a new type of power system and achieve the "dual carbon" goals.
The key core components of the turbine, the main shaft bearing and the full series of gearbox bearings, were independently developed by Luoyang Axle Research Technology Co., Ltd., achieving independent control of key components, indicating that China's high-power wind power bearing technology has reached a world-leading level.
The 26-megawatt class offshore wind turbine adopts the third-generation fully integrated semi-direct drive technology route, with a high degree of integration of the shaft system, gearbox, and generator, featuring pure torque, high load-bearing, and high reliability. Compared with the 18-megawatt offshore semi-direct drive wind turbine that has been grid-connected, the torque has increased by 67%, the vibration value of the wind turbine has decreased by 36.8%, and the temperature rise has decreased by 5.9%. By overcoming the难点 of aerodynamic and structural coupling, and adopting advanced three-level full-power frequency conversion technology and transmission chain solutions, the overall power generation level has been increased by more than 2%. Under wind speeds of 10 meters per second, the annual utilization hours exceed 4000 hours.
The turbine is tailored for mid to high wind speed areas with wind speeds above 8 meters per second. The project cost of the turbine is low, and the operation and maintenance cost is low, which can provide a lower cost per kilowatt-hour, fully adapting to the requirements of grid parity. Under an average annual wind speed of 10 meters per second, a single turbine can output 100 million kilowatt-hours of clean electricity per year, which can meet the annual living electricity needs of 55,000 ordinary households, save more than 30,000 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 80,000 tons.New Order Volume Reaches Historical High
From a market perspective, the development of new energy markets such as wind power and photovoltaics continues to maintain a relatively fast growth rate. In the first half of this year, global wind power orders have set a new record. According to the latest report from the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, in the first half of 2024, the global new wind power order volume was 91.2GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, setting a new semi-annual historical high for new order volume; the investment amount reached $42 billion (approximately 300 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 3%.
Luke Lewandowski, Vice President in charge of global renewable energy research at Wood Mackenzie, stated that Chinese wind power equipment manufacturers have continuously broken records for both domestic and international new wind power order volumes. In the first half of the year, the new wind power order volume in the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 85% of the total global new order volume. Apart from China, India's wind power growth is also relatively fast, with a year-on-year increase of 69% in new wind power orders in the first half of the year.
Lewandowski pointed out that, in contrast, Western wind power equipment manufacturers are struggling to keep up, with their products facing challenges from China's competitive advantages in terms of price and availability. Weak market demand in the West, policy uncertainty, inflation, and other cost pressures have also reduced activity in the United States and Europe.
The firm stated that in the first half of this year, new wind power orders in the West accounted for only 13% of the total global new wind power order volume.
Additionally, according to a report released by Wood Mackenzie in August this year, the global onshore and offshore wind power markets are expected to usher in a new wave of growth. It is anticipated that by 2033, the total global demand for wind power will double, with nearly 25,000 new wind turbines being commissioned. Under this forecast, the grid-connected installation capacity of all wind turbine manufacturers will double.
Good News for New Energy Vehicles
On October 12th, the Passenger Car Association announced data showing that in September of this year, the national retail sales of narrow passenger cars reached 2.109 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, ending a five-month downward trend, and a month-on-month increase of 10.6%; the cumulative retail sales for the year so far reached 15.574 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.
The increase mainly came from new energy vehicles. In September, the retail market for new energy passenger cars reached 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50% for three consecutive months, reaching 53.3% in September, an increase of 16.8 percentage points compared to September 2023, with the penetration rate remaining high.
The Passenger Car Association stated that recently, the country has arranged 150 billion yuan in special long-term government bond funds to strongly support the exchange of used consumer goods for new ones and to improve the effectiveness of the car scrapping and renewal subsidy standards.As the scrapping and renewal policy further takes effect and local trade-in policies are introduced one after another, following the national call against "involution," terminal prices have also begun to stabilize. This has further alleviated the sentiment of consumers holding onto their money and waiting to buy, leading to a slight recovery in the overall car market's popularity.
At the same time, China's automobile exports have continued the strong growth trend from last year. Both passenger cars and new energy vehicles saw record-high export volumes in September.
According to the statistical口径 of passenger car manufacturers, in September, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 435,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a month-on-month increase of 5%. From January to September, the cumulative export of passenger cars reached 3.55 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Among them, the export of new energy passenger cars in September was 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and a month-on-month increase of 6.0%. From January to September 2024, exports reached 968,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%.
Regarding the sales outlook for the fourth quarter, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Association, expressed optimism in an interview with the media, saying, "From the current situation, we are optimistic about the car market in the fourth quarter of this year. We generally believe that the Chinese car market will show a gradually strengthening trend, especially in the fourth quarter, driven by scrapping and renewal as well as local trade-in policies, it will achieve good development."
The Automobile Association stated that considering the positive role of the trade-in policy in stimulating automobile consumption, to ensure the stability, continuity, and predictability of the policy, and to effectively play the role of policy promotion, it is recommended that the relevant policies continue next year and that details of the implementation be released as soon as possible to stabilize market expectations.