"Anniversary celebrations + trade-in subsidies + price wars, now is a great time to buy a car," Wang Sen, who has over a decade of experience in car sales, noticed that the "Golden September and Silver October" that the car market hasn't seen for several years has truly arrived.
"From September until the New Year, dealers will gradually retract preferential policies, and consumers' willingness to buy will also decrease, but this year's preferential policies are incredibly diverse."
An auto dealer told Tech Planet that price wars have disrupted the traditional sales system, with various car companies' discount strategies spanning the entire year. Consumer willingness has shown a weak trend before September this year, leading to a continuous decline in sales.
"But influenced by subsidies in September and October, car companies have also increased the intensity of discounts, thereby raising consumer willingness and creating a true peak season for car market sales." According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in September are expected to reach 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%.
As market prosperity increases, good news from various car companies is also frequent. In September, BYD broke through the 400,000-unit sales milestone for the first time; Ideal Auto, Hongmeng Zhixing, GAC Aion, and Zero Run Auto exceeded the 30,000-unit threshold; XPeng Motors, Geely's ZEEKR, and several other brands set new historical delivery records.
On the evening of October 7th, Xiaomi's Chairman and CEO Lei Jun also announced on Weibo: "During the National Day holiday, Xiaomi SU7 locked in more than 6,000 orders." Immediately following, in his second Weibo post, Lei Jun also revealed Xiaomi Auto's sprint goal for October: "Produce 20,000 units, deliver 20,000 units."
Although car companies have "fought fiercely" for the Golden September and Silver October to achieve a significant increase in sales, frontline sales and dealers have not felt joy as a result. A dealer said that the surge in sales is accompanied by an intensified price war, "Now it's a loss for every unit sold."
New energy has joyfully received the "Golden September," but BBA has encountered a Waterloo.
"The customer flow during this National Day holiday is four times that of a usual weekend," said a car sales manager in the Tianjin area.
The sales manager calculated that more than half of the users who came to buy cars during the National Day holiday were trading in for new cars, "Mainly because the subsidy standards for car scrapping and renewal have been updated, and the strength of policies such as trade-in subsidies has increased, so it has driven this part of the trading-in users to come and look at cars."According to public information, since the end of August, more than 15 provinces and cities including Beijing, Guangzhou, Hubei, Hebei, and Henan have issued policies for car "trade-ins". Taking Tianjin as an example, eligible consumers can receive up to 20,000 yuan in national subsidies for purchasing a car.
The increase in policy subsidies has driven car manufacturers and dealers to participate, and they have offered more favorable strategies.
Taking the B-class car that was once in the 200,000 yuan range as an example, Tech Planet consulted with sales from many 4S stores and learned that the price of the 2025 Passat low-power version has dropped to just over 120,000 yuan, and the naked car price of the Honda Accord has also come to about 130,000 yuan.
"The decline in joint venture cars is not a small number, and cars like Honda Accord and Passat that were previously in the 200,000 yuan range also have a comprehensive discount of 60,000 to 70,000 yuan," said the listed car sales manager.
New energy car brands are also increasing the discount strength. A salesperson of NIO cars in the Beijing area said that during the National Day holiday, the cash discount for NIO EC6 can reach 25,000 yuan, "there is also a policy of interest-free loans, and points are also given." A salesperson of Ideal in the Beijing area also said that replacing the L6 model can get a cash discount of 8,000 yuan, and also gives a selection fund and points.
As a result, the overall discount space has been further expanded, which has made some consumers who were previously on the sidelines willing to place orders. A consumer in Anhui told Tech Planet that during the National Day holiday, by enjoying the replacement subsidy, government subsidy, and the group purchase subsidy of the car company, the final landing price of the Xiaopeng Mona M03 purchased with a guide price of 119,800 yuan was 106,000 yuan.
Subsidies and preferential policies of car companies have increased sales enthusiasm, and the sales volume of domestic new energy car brands such as BYD, "Wei Xiaoli", Wengjie, and Xiaomi Su7 have all set historical records.
However, not all brands have shared the cake during the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" period.
A BMW salesperson in Beijing said that although the number of orders has increased, the sales volume cannot be compared with the previous years. In the third quarter, the sales volume of BMW Group in China fell by 29.8% to 147,691 units.
The decline in sales volume has led BMW to return to the "price war" three months after announcing a price increase. Taking the BMW i3 as an example, the salesperson revealed that the terminal discount exceeded 150,000 yuan, "but there are still not many consumers coming to inquire."Mercedes-Benz and BMW find themselves in a similar situation. According to the latest sales report released by Mercedes-Benz Group in October, the company delivered 170,700 new vehicles in the Chinese market in the third quarter, a year-on-year decline of 13%.
Looking at the detailed market data, the retail volume of fuel vehicles for the entire month was 882,000 units, a significant year-on-year decrease of 26.9%. In contrast, the new energy market retail volume reached 1.025 million units, with a penetration rate as high as 53.7%. As new energy vehicle brands made significant sales gains during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, traditional fuel brands led by BBA were forced into a zero-sum game.
Prelude to the "Silver October" battle: Encircling the fuel vehicle home market
In September, Xiaopeng Motors' sales reached 21,352 units, a month-on-month increase of 52.12%, marking the first time this year that monthly sales exceeded 20,000 units. This figure is inseparable from the hot sales of the Xiaopeng Mona M03.
An employee of Xiaopeng Motors said that this year, new force car companies have shifted their product strategy towards the mainstream home car market, and Xiaopeng is no exception. "The M03 is positioned for young families, and the Xiaopeng P7+ released on October 10 also focuses on home and comfort as its two main selling points."
It's not just Xiaopeng. Influenced by the market recognition of Li Auto's family strategy, car companies such as NIO, Ji氪, and Zero Run have launched market penetration strategies, introducing lower-priced sub-brands and models, targeting more segmented family markets, and seeking new growth points.
Over the past few decades, the mainstream home car market has been dominated by fuel vehicle brands. The earliest penetration of new energy vehicles was mainly in the small car and large SUV markets. However, as the penetration rate of segmented markets increases, new energy vehicles have set their sights on the mainstream home car market.
Data released by the Passenger Car Association for the first eight months of this year shows that in the price range below 50,000 yuan, the proportion of new energy vehicles has reached 81.2%. In the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan and 150,000 to 200,000 yuan segments, the proportion of new energy vehicles is 40.3% and 36.8%, respectively, indicating a certain scale of substitution space.
To impact the "Golden September and Silver October," according to an incomplete survey by Tech Planet, nearly 50 new, mid-cycle, and annual models were unveiled in the domestic market in September. Around these nearly 50 new models, home use, comfort, cost-effectiveness, and intelligence have become the core selling points for new energy vehicle companies.
NIO founder William Li mentioned that every functional configuration of the Ledao L60 is completely configured based on the driving scenarios and frequency of mainstream family users.In September, Zeekr officially entered the mainstream home pure electric SUV market by launching the Zeekr 7X. From the start of pre-sales to the official launch, orders exceeded 58,000 units within 20 days.
"Automotive companies focus on new vehicles, mainly hoping to seize market share by introducing more attractive and market-demanding products," said the aforementioned XPeng employee. In their view, replacing fuel vehicles of the same level with lower prices is the core goal of new energy self-owned brands at this stage.
According to publicly available data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance's smart mobility analyst, Lv Jinghong, the weighted average price of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year was almost equal to that of traditional fuel vehicles, with two-thirds of new energy vehicles priced lower than fuel vehicles in the same category.
Against the backdrop of the accelerating contraction of the fuel vehicle base, new energy vehicle companies choose to first roll towards fuel vehicles by capturing the mainstream home car market.
During the National Day holiday, new energy vehicles fired the first shot of "Silver October." On October 8, the State Taxation Administration's value-added tax invoice data showed that during the National Day holiday, the sales volume of new cars increased by 11.7% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles increasing by as much as 45.8% year-on-year.
The more you sell at a low price, the more you lose
A sales-oriented strategy was once an effective means of market expansion, but with market saturation, relying solely on sales is no longer sustainable.
An auto dealer told Tech Planet that the golden September and silver October did bring a surge in sales, but this does not mean that all parties in the industry chain can earn more profits. "On the contrary, the more you sell, the more you lose."
According to the financial report data of many automotive companies in the first half of the year, NIO, XPeng, Zero Run, and BAIC are still deeply mired in losses, with per-car losses of 118,800 yuan, 51,000 yuan, 25,000 yuan, and 91,000 yuan, respectively.
Tesla, Great Wall, Geely, Li Auto, BYD, and Seres have achieved per-car profitability, ranging from high to low at 22,600 yuan, 12,757 yuan, 11,085 yuan, 8,900 yuan, 8,500 yuan, and 8,100 yuan, respectively.Profitable car manufacturers are not without worries, as many are experiencing a squeeze on their profit margins. Taking Tesla as an example, in the first half of this year, to counter the decline in delivery volume in the Chinese market, Tesla introduced several rounds of terminal preferential policies. As a result, its total revenue for the second quarter only increased by 2% year-on-year to $25.5 billion, while net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year to $1.478 billion.
In the case of new energy vehicles, before the market is fully saturated, participating in price wars not only leads to lower profits but also puts participants in the automotive industry chain under more brutal survival pressure.
When new energy car manufacturers were celebrating the "Golden September," the official microblog of the China Automobile Dealers Association posted that the drastic changes in the automotive market brought about by continuous "price wars" and other factors have caused car dealers to be mired in difficulties, facing prominent issues of extremely tight capital liquidity.
As the downstream of the automotive industry chain, the existing working capital of many dealers has been compressed to the limit. According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, as of August, the domestic dealers' purchase and sale inversion (the purchase price is higher than the car selling price) has reached as high as -22.8%, which means the more dealers sell, the more they lose.
A car dealer in the Tianjin area told Tech Planet, "There are basically no profitable dealers in fuel vehicles, but the situation for new energy vehicle dealers is also not easy."
At the upstream of the automotive industry chain, suppliers, in order to get the projects of the main plant, have also compressed costs to the extreme. An insider from an automotive software supplier told Tech Planet: "Two projects were scrapped in the third quarter of this year because another company competing in the bidding had already reduced the bid price to below our cost line."
Although the drawbacks of price wars are obvious, car manufacturers who are currently immersed in the excitement of high sales in "Golden September" and facing "Silver October" choose to continue to increase their bets. This "price meat fight" for sales will continue.